The Disease Modelling Specialist will lead technical work to generate Kenya’s first comprehensive national and sub-national estimates of Asthma, COPD, and PTLD. The position will involve a mix of data analysis, model development, stakeholder engagement and evidence translation into actionable policy recommendations. The Disease Modelling Specialist will report to the Senior Director — Infectious Diseases.

Responsibilities

• Conduct a structured review of global and regional methodologies used to estimate the burden of asthma, COPD, and PTLD.
• Summarize methodological options, data requirements, assumptions, and limitations applicable to the Kenyan context.
• Recommend the most appropriate estimation approach for Kenya.
• Model Design and Implementation
• Identify, adapt, or develop statistical/mathematical models to estimate disease burden and prevalence, using available national and sub-national data sources.
• Implement models in reproducible code (such as R or Python), applying best practices in epidemiological modelling and sensitivity analysis.
• Generate scenario-based estimates (e.g., conservative, moderate, and high estimates) and quantify uncertainty intervals.
• Compile and clean relevant datasets, including national and county-level population data, health facility data, national surveys, TB program data, and other relevant epidemiological studies.
• Establish and maintain a data catalogue and documentation system.
• Consolidate datasets for model validation and testing.
• Validate model assumptions and results through stakeholder review meetings and expert consultations.
• Cross-check outputs against comparable international and regional estimates.
• Refine models based on feedback and incorporate validation results into technical documentation.

Produce clear and comprehensive outputs, including:

• A technical report detailing methodology and results.
• Policy briefs and data visualisations summarizing key findings for decision-makers.
• Slide decks and summary infographics for advocacy and dissemination.
• Support the development of advocacy materials to inform resource allocation and program prioritization for asthma, COPD, and PTLD.
• Conduct hands-on training sessions for Ministry of Health and partner staff on model interpretation, data analysis, and maintenance.
• Develop user-friendly documentation and standard operating procedures (SOPs) to enable institutionalisation of the model.
• Develop a detailed work plan and deliverables schedule aligned with program timelines.
• Coordinate regularly with government counterparts, academic partners, and implementing agencies.
• Prepare periodic progress reports, presentations, and technical updates for program leadership.
• Perform any other duties as assigned.

Qualifications

• A degree or higher in Epidemiology, Biostatistics, Public Health, Mathematical Modelling, Health Metrics, Mathematics, Statistics, Computer Science, Health Economics or related field.
• At least 4 years of experience in disease burden estimation, epidemiological modelling, or quantitative health research.
• Demonstrated experience in using and developing models for estimating prevalence, incidence, or disease burden.
• Strong proficiency in statistical software such as R, Python, or Stata.
• Proven ability to manage and analyse large datasets from multiple sources.
• Experience working with ministries of health or public health institutions in low- or middle-income countries.